🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still